The truth behind predicting the future of events
Game Conference Guide Insights: August 2022
Before the end of last year, I made some bold predictions how 2022 will look like and how it will shape the events. You can read all about here. I decided to look at the predictions and see how much I was wrong and if there was some truth in them.
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So, how wrong was I a year ago? And do I possess the crystal ball?
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Disclaimer: the predictions are highlighted in bold italic.
Even with a higher number of in-person events scheduled so far (87% out of 54 events), I do believe we will see changes in the format here and there.
This is true. Some conferences suffered due to unfortunate turn of events and were cancelled due to invasion of Ukraine. Another example is ChinaJoy, it was postponed, and the format has changed as well due to hard Covid-19 restrictions. Overall, the dates are not moving as much in the calendar as before and organizers are committing to terms they have announced.
GDC won’t attract as high numbers of attendees as anyone is expecting and will strike a conversation about (not) following the rules and respecting the personal space.
Again, this is true in both cases. GDC sets the stage for rest of the events every year. We have seen an increased interest closer to the dates resulting in tons of conversations outside and inside, even though the showcase area was pretty empty after the first day. On the other hand, even with the new set of rules and regulations, and fully masked event, we have seen backlash for the spread of the disease and updates from attendees who got sick while attending GDC.
This year, GDC brought together 17,000 attendees (out of those 5,000 joined virtually), which is 37% less compared to the 2019 with 27,000 visitors. If you count only on-site visitors, the decrease compared to 2019 is 56%.
Every physical event in 2022 will have significantly less attendees (by estimates 40%) than during the peak in 2019.
This is something I will look into in review of the year, once I collect all the reports from all the events. In general, in-person events are almost back in track, slowly gathering the community and the audience from previous years. What we are also seeing is the late adoption of tickets and preparing to travel on the very last minute.
Stronger regional focus, important for discoverability and attractive proposition for scouts and business developers flocking into uncharted events and less-travelled countries.
This is true. New formats are being introduced almost every month especially tied to discoverability. Established brands of events switched their virtual offering back to in-person and there are also parties experimenting with new formats (can’t disclose them yet). Many are finding new homes in new countries (Vilnius and Bratislava for example) and there are local initiatives discovering Steam pages and attaching them to their events (NZGDC for example).
Events are not going to be cheaper either. Physical will be pricey to attend, exhibit and participate in general. Not counting the prices for flights / travelling or accommodation.
True. While you can still find tickets that will grant you access to an event, it will be limited to passively consume content from a showcase or session without the possibility to actively engage with other delegates. In general, prices for tickets went up due to inflation, rising costs of utilities (gas, electricity) and rent. If you take into consideration the prices for renting up the venues, prices for food, refreshments and other logistical costs, it will be reflected in higher ticket prices.
Again, I will be looking into ticket prices in the review of the year report, this time I will compare the prices with previous year as well.
In 2022 we will see an increase of in-person events in Q2 and Q3. These will be organized as physical-first.
Again true. Number of in-person events in Q2 and Q3 is seeing a significant increase compared to 2021. 350% to be exact in case of Q2 and 133% in Q3 so far. Even though we won’t be probably seeing the same number of events throughout the year, their variety is covering every business need out there, both in virtual and IRL format.
Virtual events are going to stay with us as an alternative, but to quote Guy Blomberg from last month’s interview: “No one really succeeded in running a virtual event that was better than the in-person ones they hosted previously, so everyone is swinging back to what they know.”
Social anxiety is still prevalent, either from others not respecting personal space, or not following the rules.
This is again true. There are still groups who are not willing to attend crowded spaces, they are hosting all the meetings outside, staying away from busy spaces and if they are meeting with you they will request to wear a mask, or respect the distance apart from each other. And I am not mentioning avoiding any contact whatsoever including hand shake.
Don’t forget, Covid-19 is still here, and we must respect privacy and safety concerns of others. Be nice to each other.
Huge consumer events are slowly returning, Gamescom is happening as an open-air festival.
The second part is not true. PAX, EGX, ComicCons, GenCon they are all back. Gamescom is gearing up for a return to the big league in coming days and showcasing games in the business area for professionals while the massive halls are reserved for the big crowds. Last report was 60,000 tickets sold, and this number has definitely grown since then.
If I may make another prediction, it won’t be record breaking event. Oh, and if you have trouble booking a room you can sleep in a tent in the festival area.
Lastly, graphical representation of the events now enhanced with the “metaverse” and NTFs.
Lastly, I will leave you with a comment from ChinaJoy 2022: “It is known that MetaJoy is committed to creating an online digital world and online exhibition is one of its important functions, especially providing exhibitions, conferences, corporate branding and services other services for organizers in the digital world of MetaJoy.”
So, I guess, this counts as truth.
The full analysis of 2022 events will be brought to you in a complete review of the year, covering ticket pricing, number of events, comparing previous years and other useful insights, including graphs.
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[Game Conference Guide is tracking games industry & game developers’ events, trade shows, festivals, conferences and events around the world.]